{
 "metadata": {
  "name": "Model Mortality Ledger: what Groq states about retiring a model, and what our own probes observed",
  "retrievedDate": "2026-10-26",
  "ledgerAsOf": "2026-10-26",
  "ledgerFile": "model-mortality-ledger-2026-10-26.json",
  "sources": [
   {
    "file": "groq-deprecations.html",
    "url": "https://console.groq.com/docs/deprecations",
    "sha256": "c42c90e75fa41740aaca50782062cc9e146664b7dbb8a608922dfff3645a4438"
   },
   {
    "file": "retirements.json (Google rows)",
    "note": "Google deprecations page, archived with a SHA-256 hash in retirements.json"
   }
  ],
  "limits": [
   "One provider states the dates (Groq) and one small panel was observed: 10 models, 5 of them on Groq. This is a case study, not a market rate.",
   "Observed dates come from our weekly captures and two host catalogue reads (Groq 2026-09-05 and 2026-10-26, Google 2026-10-26). A death date is an interval, never a point; no probe ran between a last capture and the first failed one.",
   "Groq states shutdown dates for free and developer tier usage; the page says enterprise customers with a committed-spend contract are not affected.",
   "Notice days exist only where the page states an announcement or email date. Rows without one carry no notice figure.",
   "Replacement lifetime counts from the announcement date of the retirement that named the replacement (or its shutdown date where none is stated) to the replacement's own shutdown date.",
   "Cohere, ChatGPT (web) and Perplexity (web) rows are not checked: no catalogue was queried for them."
  ]
 },
 "groqNotice": {
  "n": 13,
  "min": 7,
  "median": 28,
  "max": 91
 },
 "otherProviderNotice": {
  "Anthropic": {
   "n": 10,
   "min": 60,
   "median": 63,
   "max": 189
  },
  "OpenAI": {
   "n": 11,
   "min": 20,
   "median": 182,
   "max": 184
  },
  "Google": null
 },
 "groqEvents": [
  {
   "model": "llama-3.2-1b-preview",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "llama-3.2-3b-preview",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "llama-3.2-11b-vision-preview",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "llama-3.2-90b-vision-preview",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "deepseek-r1-distill-qwen-32b",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "qwen-qwq-32b",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "qwen-2.5-32b",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "qwen-qwq-32b meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "qwen-2.5-coder-32b",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "qwen-qwq-32b openai/gpt-oss-120b",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "llama-3.3-70b-specdec",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b-specdec",
   "shutdown": "2025-04-14",
   "replacement": "deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b deepseek-r1-distill-qwen-32b",
   "announced": "2025-04-07",
   "headingDate": "2025-04-14",
   "noticeDays": 7
  },
  {
   "model": "llama-guard-3-8b",
   "shutdown": "2025-06-06",
   "replacement": "meta-llama/llama-guard-4-12b",
   "announced": "2025-05-09",
   "headingDate": "2025-06-06",
   "noticeDays": 28
  },
  {
   "model": "qwen-qwq-32b",
   "shutdown": "2025-07-14",
   "replacement": "qwen/qwen3-32b",
   "announced": null,
   "headingDate": "2025-07-14",
   "noticeDays": null
  },
  {
   "model": "mistral-saba-24b",
   "shutdown": "2025-07-30",
   "replacement": "qwen/qwen3-32b",
   "announced": null,
   "headingDate": "2025-07-30",
   "noticeDays": null
  },
  {
   "model": "distil-whisper-large-v3-en",
   "shutdown": "2025-08-23",
   "replacement": "whisper-large-v3-turbo",
   "announced": null,
   "headingDate": "2025-08-23",
   "noticeDays": null
  },
  {
   "model": "llama3-70b-8192",
   "shutdown": "2025-08-30",
   "replacement": "llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
   "announced": "2025-05-31",
   "headingDate": "2025-08-30",
   "noticeDays": 91
  },
  {
   "model": "llama3-8b-8192",
   "shutdown": "2025-08-30",
   "replacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "announced": "2025-05-31",
   "headingDate": "2025-08-30",
   "noticeDays": 91
  },
  {
   "model": "deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b",
   "shutdown": "2025-10-02",
   "replacement": "llama-3.3-70b-versatile or openai/gpt-oss-120b",
   "announced": "2025-09-02",
   "headingDate": "2025-10-02",
   "noticeDays": 30
  },
  {
   "model": "gemma2-9b-it",
   "shutdown": "2025-10-08",
   "replacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "announced": "2025-08-08",
   "headingDate": "2025-10-08",
   "noticeDays": 61
  },
  {
   "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct",
   "shutdown": "2025-10-10",
   "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-120b",
   "announced": "2025-09-10",
   "headingDate": "2025-10-10",
   "noticeDays": 30
  },
  {
   "model": "playai-tts",
   "shutdown": "2025-12-31",
   "replacement": "canopylabs/orpheus-v1-english",
   "announced": "2025-12-23",
   "headingDate": "2025-12-31",
   "noticeDays": 8
  },
  {
   "model": "playai-tts-arabic",
   "shutdown": "2025-12-31",
   "replacement": "canopylabs/orpheus-arabic-saudi",
   "announced": "2025-12-23",
   "headingDate": "2025-12-31",
   "noticeDays": 8
  },
  {
   "model": "meta-llama/llama-guard-4-12b",
   "shutdown": "2026-03-05",
   "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-safeguard-20b",
   "announced": "2026-02-10",
   "headingDate": "2026-03-05",
   "noticeDays": 23
  },
  {
   "model": "meta-llama/llama-4-maverick-17b-128e-instruct",
   "shutdown": "2026-03-09",
   "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-120b",
   "announced": "2026-02-20",
   "headingDate": "2026-03-09",
   "noticeDays": 17
  },
  {
   "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
   "shutdown": "2026-04-15",
   "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-120b",
   "announced": "2026-03-23",
   "headingDate": "2026-04-15",
   "noticeDays": 23
  },
  {
   "model": "qwen/qwen3-32b",
   "shutdown": "2026-07-17",
   "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-120b",
   "announced": "2026-06-17",
   "headingDate": "2026-07-17",
   "noticeDays": 30
  },
  {
   "model": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "shutdown": "2026-07-17",
   "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-120b or qwen/qwen3.6-27b",
   "announced": "2026-06-17",
   "headingDate": "2026-07-17",
   "noticeDays": 30
  },
  {
   "model": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "shutdown": "2026-08-16",
   "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-20b",
   "announced": "2026-06-17",
   "headingDate": "2026-08-16",
   "noticeDays": 60
  },
  {
   "model": "llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
   "shutdown": "2026-08-16",
   "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-120b or qwen/qwen3.6-27b",
   "announced": "2026-06-17",
   "headingDate": "2026-08-16",
   "noticeDays": 60
  },
  {
   "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-27b",
   "shutdown": "2026-09-14",
   "replacement": "qwen/qwen3.8-27b",
   "announced": null,
   "headingDate": "2026-09-14",
   "noticeDays": null
  },
  {
   "model": "groq/compound",
   "shutdown": "2026-09-21",
   "replacement": null,
   "announced": "2026-08-24",
   "headingDate": "2026-09-21",
   "noticeDays": 28
  },
  {
   "model": "groq/compound-mini",
   "shutdown": "2026-09-21",
   "replacement": null,
   "announced": "2026-08-24",
   "headingDate": "2026-09-21",
   "noticeDays": 28
  }
 ],
 "replacementChains": [
  {
   "retired": "llama-3.2-1b-preview",
   "namedReplacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "namedOn": "2025-04-07",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-08-16",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 496
  },
  {
   "retired": "llama-3.2-3b-preview",
   "namedReplacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "namedOn": "2025-04-07",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-08-16",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 496
  },
  {
   "retired": "llama-3.2-11b-vision-preview",
   "namedReplacement": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "namedOn": "2025-04-07",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-07-17",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 466
  },
  {
   "retired": "llama-3.2-90b-vision-preview",
   "namedReplacement": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "namedOn": "2025-04-07",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-07-17",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 466
  },
  {
   "retired": "deepseek-r1-distill-qwen-32b",
   "namedReplacement": "qwen-qwq-32b",
   "namedOn": "2025-04-07",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2025-07-14",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 98
  },
  {
   "retired": "llama-guard-3-8b",
   "namedReplacement": "meta-llama/llama-guard-4-12b",
   "namedOn": "2025-05-09",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-03-05",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 300
  },
  {
   "retired": "qwen-qwq-32b",
   "namedReplacement": "qwen/qwen3-32b",
   "namedOn": "2025-07-14",
   "namedBasis": "shutdown date (no announcement date on the page)",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-07-17",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 368
  },
  {
   "retired": "mistral-saba-24b",
   "namedReplacement": "qwen/qwen3-32b",
   "namedOn": "2025-07-30",
   "namedBasis": "shutdown date (no announcement date on the page)",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-07-17",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 352
  },
  {
   "retired": "llama3-70b-8192",
   "namedReplacement": "llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
   "namedOn": "2025-05-31",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-08-16",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 442
  },
  {
   "retired": "llama3-8b-8192",
   "namedReplacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "namedOn": "2025-05-31",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-08-16",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 442
  },
  {
   "retired": "deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b",
   "namedReplacement": "llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
   "namedOn": "2025-09-02",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-08-16",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 348
  },
  {
   "retired": "gemma2-9b-it",
   "namedReplacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "namedOn": "2025-08-08",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-08-16",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 373
  },
  {
   "retired": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "namedReplacement": "qwen/qwen3.6-27b",
   "namedOn": "2026-06-17",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-09-14",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 89
  },
  {
   "retired": "llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
   "namedReplacement": "qwen/qwen3.6-27b",
   "namedOn": "2026-06-17",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "replacementShutdown": "2026-09-14",
   "daysFromNamedToShutdown": 89
  }
 ],
 "replacementLifetime": {
  "n": 14,
  "min": 89,
  "median": 373,
  "max": 496
 },
 "perReplacement": [
  {
   "replacement": "qwen/qwen3.6-27b",
   "lastNamedOn": "2026-06-17",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "retiredOn": "2026-09-14",
   "daysFromNamedToRetired": 89
  },
  {
   "replacement": "qwen-qwq-32b",
   "lastNamedOn": "2025-04-07",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "retiredOn": "2025-07-14",
   "daysFromNamedToRetired": 98
  },
  {
   "replacement": "meta-llama/llama-guard-4-12b",
   "lastNamedOn": "2025-05-09",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "retiredOn": "2026-03-05",
   "daysFromNamedToRetired": 300
  },
  {
   "replacement": "llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
   "lastNamedOn": "2025-09-02",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "retiredOn": "2026-08-16",
   "daysFromNamedToRetired": 348
  },
  {
   "replacement": "qwen/qwen3-32b",
   "lastNamedOn": "2025-07-30",
   "namedBasis": "shutdown date (no announcement date on the page)",
   "retiredOn": "2026-07-17",
   "daysFromNamedToRetired": 352
  },
  {
   "replacement": "llama-3.1-8b-instant",
   "lastNamedOn": "2025-08-08",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "retiredOn": "2026-08-16",
   "daysFromNamedToRetired": 373
  },
  {
   "replacement": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "lastNamedOn": "2025-04-07",
   "namedBasis": "announcement date",
   "retiredOn": "2026-07-17",
   "daysFromNamedToRetired": 466
  }
 ],
 "perReplacementLifetime": {
  "n": 7,
  "min": 89,
  "median": 348,
  "max": 466
 },
 "panel": [
  {
   "id": "llama-3.3-70b-versatile",
   "host": "Groq",
   "role": "memory",
   "status": "DEAD",
   "firstCapture": "2026-06-19",
   "lastCapture": "2026-08-17",
   "lastAlive": "2026-08-17",
   "confirmedDead": "2026-09-05",
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": null,
   "stated": {
    "shutdown": "2026-08-16",
    "announced": "2026-06-17",
    "noticeDays": 60,
    "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-120b or qwen/qwen3.6-27b"
   },
   "verdict": "answered 1 day(s) after the stated shutdown date"
  },
  {
   "id": "meta-llama/llama-4-scout-17b-16e-instruct",
   "host": "Groq",
   "role": "memory",
   "status": "DEAD",
   "firstCapture": "2026-07-08",
   "lastCapture": "2026-07-08",
   "lastAlive": "2026-07-08",
   "confirmedDead": "2026-09-05",
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": null,
   "stated": {
    "shutdown": "2026-07-17",
    "announced": "2026-06-17",
    "noticeDays": 30,
    "replacement": "openai/gpt-oss-120b or qwen/qwen3.6-27b"
   },
   "verdict": "consistent: last answered on or before the stated date, first confirmed dead after it"
  },
  {
   "id": "qwen/qwen3.6-27b",
   "host": "Groq",
   "role": "memory",
   "status": "DEAD",
   "firstCapture": "2026-07-08",
   "lastCapture": "2026-09-07",
   "lastAlive": "2026-09-01",
   "confirmedDead": "2026-09-23",
   "successorOnHost": "qwen/qwen3.8-27b (listed; would start a new series)",
   "note": "UNAVAILABLE says lastAlive 2026-09-01; a partial capture file is dated 2026-09-07. Interval is therefore 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-23 if the partial rows are valid.",
   "stated": {
    "shutdown": "2026-09-14",
    "announced": null,
    "noticeDays": null,
    "replacement": "qwen/qwen3.8-27b"
   },
   "verdict": "consistent: last answered on or before the stated date, first confirmed dead after it"
  },
  {
   "id": "groq/compound",
   "host": "Groq",
   "role": "grounded",
   "status": "DEAD",
   "firstCapture": null,
   "lastCapture": null,
   "lastAlive": null,
   "confirmedDead": "2026-10-12",
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": "never part of the published eight; added as an optional grounded leg",
   "stated": {
    "shutdown": "2026-09-21",
    "announced": "2026-08-24",
    "noticeDays": 28,
    "replacement": null
   },
   "verdict": "never captured by our probes; first model_not_found recorded after the stated shutdown date"
  },
  {
   "id": "openai/gpt-oss-120b",
   "host": "Groq",
   "role": "memory",
   "status": "ALIVE",
   "firstCapture": "2026-07-08",
   "lastCapture": "2026-10-20",
   "lastAlive": null,
   "confirmedDead": null,
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": "the only engine with a near-continuous weekly series"
  },
  {
   "id": "gemini-2.5-flash",
   "host": "Google AI Studio",
   "role": "memory (ungrounded)",
   "status": "SUPERSEDED",
   "firstCapture": "2026-07-20",
   "lastCapture": "2026-10-06",
   "lastAlive": null,
   "confirmedDead": null,
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": null,
   "newerListed": [
    "gemini-3.5-flash",
    "gemini-3.6-flash",
    "gemini-3.7-flash",
    "gemini-3.8-flash"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "gemini-2.5-flash-lite",
   "host": "Google AI Studio",
   "role": "grounded",
   "status": "SUPERSEDED",
   "firstCapture": "2026-06-19",
   "lastCapture": "2026-10-20",
   "lastAlive": null,
   "confirmedDead": null,
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": null,
   "newerListed": [
    "gemini-3.1-flash-lite",
    "gemini-3.5-flash-lite"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "command-a-03-2025",
   "host": "Cohere",
   "role": "memory",
   "status": "NOT CHECKED",
   "firstCapture": "2026-06-19",
   "lastCapture": "2026-09-01",
   "lastAlive": null,
   "confirmedDead": null,
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": "trial key barred from commercial use (tracker-core NON_COMMERCIAL); catalogue not queried. Captures removed from the paid panel."
  },
  {
   "id": "ChatGPT (web)",
   "host": "OpenAI",
   "role": "grounded",
   "status": "NOT CHECKED",
   "firstCapture": "2026-06-19",
   "lastCapture": "2026-06-19",
   "lastAlive": null,
   "confirmedDead": null,
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": "manual browser capture; no model catalogue exists to check"
  },
  {
   "id": "Perplexity (web)",
   "host": "Perplexity",
   "role": "grounded",
   "status": "NOT CHECKED",
   "firstCapture": "2026-06-19",
   "lastCapture": "2026-06-19",
   "lastAlive": null,
   "confirmedDead": null,
   "successorOnHost": null,
   "note": "manual browser capture; no model catalogue exists to check"
  }
 ],
 "googleStated": {
  "gemini-2.5-flash": "No shutdown date announced",
  "gemini-2.5-flash-lite": "No shutdown date announced"
 },
 "catalogueCounts": {
  "groq": {
   "2026-09-05": 14,
   "2026-10-26": 11
  },
  "gemini": {
   "2026-10-26": 60
  }
 },
 "summary": {
  "panelModels": 10,
  "groqPanel": 5,
  "groqDead": 4,
  "superseded": 2,
  "notChecked": 3
 }
}